The Recognition-Driven War Probability (RDWP) Model redefines how we assess the likelihood of conflict by incorporating a nation’s unconscious collective demand for recognition. Centered on the ratio of military spending to GDP, the model reveals how symbolic identity, domestic pressure, and perceived threats combine to shape strategic behavior. Use cases across diverse nations—from the U.S. to Saudi Arabia—demonstrate how recognition-seeking, more than pure strategic interest, predicts the probability of war in the 21st century.
