War as a Political Lifeline: Netanyahu
- Domestic Crisis Management: Before October 2023, Netanyahu was facing massive internal opposition due to his controversial judicial reforms. Hundreds of thousands protested regularly. The war allowed him to reframe the national narrative around security and survival, pushing legal and political troubles to the background.
- Unity Through Fear: In times of existential threat, democracies often consolidate under strong leadership. The war allowed Netanyahu to reclaim authority, suppress dissent, and extend emergency powers.
- Delay of Accountability: Questions about the intelligence and security failures on October 7 could have been career-ending. But the ongoing war defers investigations and creates a protective buffer.
- Benefitting from Polarization: A prolonged conflict entrenches the idea that only hardline leadership can protect Israel, which aligns with Netanyahu’s political branding.
War as a Structural Survival Mechanism: Hamas
- Legitimacy Through Resistance: Hamas thrives on confrontation. The longer the war, the more it can position itself as the authentic voice of Palestinian resistance, even as Gaza is devastated.
- Weakness as Strength: Civilian suffering paradoxically strengthens Hamas by:
- Drawing international outrage against Israel.
- Framing Hamas as the victim-hero resisting a superior oppressor.
- Recruiting angered survivors and youth who grow up amid violence and trauma.
- Undermining the Palestinian Authority (PA): A prolonged conflict weakens the PA and removes the possibility of a two-state solution brokered by moderate forces — something Hamas has always opposed.
- Global Islamist Branding: The war allows Hamas to amplify its message across the Islamic world, gaining support not just in Gaza but in Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and among diaspora communities.
The Self-Sustaining Nature of Conflict
This reflects what might be called a conflict-feedback loop, where war becomes a mutually reinforcing survival tactic:
| System | Threat | Strategic Use of War |
|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu’s Israel | Internal political collapse | War as a unifying force and distraction |
| Hamas | Irrelevance or PA takeover | War as a source of legitimacy and recruitment |
The Victims of the Self-Perpetuating Loop
- Civilians: Caught between aerial bombings and human shields, both Palestinian and Israeli civilians suffer disproportionately while leadership on both sides gain resilience.
- Diplomatic Progress: Moderate forces and peace initiatives are silenced, as the extreme poles control the narrative and the field.
- Truth: Information war becomes a tool of both sides. Each atrocity is weaponized for strategic gain. Truth is subordinated to propaganda.
The Future of Gaza: A Realistic Scenario-Based Forecast
1. The Most Likely: Gaza as a Semi-Permanent Ruin Managed by Crisis
Characteristics:
- Humanitarian Dependency: Gaza becomes an open-air refugee zone run by international aid organizations (UN, Red Cross, Qatar, etc.).
- De-facto Non-Governance: Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority fully rules. A local vacuum exists with sporadic warlordism or community-based organization.
- No Reconstruction, No Exit: Israel prevents large-scale rebuilding (to block Hamas rearmament), while the world loses interest after crisis fatigue.
- Constant Low-Level Conflict: Occasional Israeli strikes, local retaliation, drone surveillance, arrests.
Consequences:
- Youth radicalization intensifies.
- Mass emigration if allowed (Egypt, Europe).
- Hamas weakens militarily, but remains ideologically rooted underground.
2. Scenario of Israeli Military Reoccupation (Short-Term Shock, Long-Term Quagmire)
Characteristics:
- Israel attempts to “finish the job” by controlling Gaza militarily.
- Massive international backlash and resistance.
- Civil disobedience and insurgency by Gazans.
Why It Fails:
- Israel cannot afford long-term occupation economically or politically.
- Global legitimacy collapses.
- Internal Israeli dissent increases.
Outcome:
- Israel withdraws after years of bloodshed.
- Hamas or a successor returns in a more radical form.
3. The Optimist’s Path: International Trusteeship with Gradual Civilian Rebuilding
Characteristics:
- A UN-mandated or Arab-led coalition (Egypt, Jordan, Gulf states) temporarily administers Gaza.
- Demilitarization enforced through international presence.
- Civil society, education, infrastructure rebuilt slowly.
- Moderate Palestinian governance emerges with global backing.
Obstacles:
- Requires U.S., China, Russia, Arab League, and Israel to agree on terms — nearly impossible.
- Hamas resists disarmament.
- Israel would demand extreme security guarantees.
Potential:
- If successful, could lay the foundation for a real Palestinian state in the future.
- Gaza becomes a symbol of international rehabilitation.
4. The Eidoist Forecast: Structural Repetition Until Collapse of Identity Systems
Analysis:
From the Eidoist viewpoint, Gaza is trapped in a recognition loop between humiliation and resistance:
- Hamas needs Israeli aggression to justify existence.
- Israel needs Palestinian hostility to justify its security state and internal cohesion.
- The population is trapped, their suffering weaponized by both sides.
Long-Term Projection:
- Without a fundamental shift in identity structures, both societies will repeat the cycle until collapse — either economic, demographic, or geopolitical (e.g., war fatigue, regional rebellion, or internal revolution).
Only Escape:
- Break the loop of identity and recognition.
- Dismantle the systems (Hamas, Likud) that survive through fear and conflict.
- Introduce non-recognition-based governance focused on needs, structure, and neutrality — an Eidoist peace approach.
Final Summary Table:
| Scenario | Likelihood | Stability | Human Outcome | Requires |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semi-permanent ruin | High | Low | Miserable survival | None |
| Israeli reoccupation | Medium | Very Low | Violent collapse | Military power |
| International trusteeship & rebuild | Low | Medium | Slow progress | Global unity |
| Eidoist transformation | Very low | High | Liberation from loop | Consciousness shift |
Unless the underlying structures of identity-driven conflict are dismantled, Gaza will remain both a battlefield and a symbol — not of peace, but of the failure to evolve beyond history.
The Recognition Loop of the Gaza War: How Justifications Sustain Endless Conflict
The war in Gaza is not a linear event with a clear beginning or end. It is driven by psychological loops—repeating cycles of justification, retaliation, identity defense, and recognition-seeking—on both sides. Each motive appears rational in isolation, but together they trap all actors in a structure where war becomes not a means to peace, but a way to preserve self-image, power, and control.
Loop 1: “We Have the Right to Finish What Hamas Started” → Endless Retaliation
- Trigger: Hamas attacks → Israeli trauma and humiliation.
- Response: Need to reassert dignity through force.
- Vòng lặp: Each military response creates new trauma and hatred, feeding the next round of violence.
- Psychological Root: Collective ego injury demands symbolic reparation.
- Result: Retaliation becomes moral performance, not strategy.
Loop 2: “We Must Destroy Hamas to Get Long-Term Peace” → Myth of Final Elimination
- Trigger: Belief that violence can “solve” ideology.
- Response: Pursuit of total military solution.
- Vòng lặp: Killing leaders and civilians creates more radicalized replacements.
- Psychological Root: Fantasies of control and closure in a chaotic world.
- Result: War escalates while peace recedes—because its precondition (destruction) generates its impossibility (rebuilding trust).
Loop 3: “We Must Make a Statement to Our Neighbors” → Regional Signaling Trap
- Trigger: Fear of regional weakness.
- Response: Show of overwhelming power to prevent future attacks.
- Vòng lặp: Each demonstration invites more resistance (Lebanon, Iran), requiring further escalation.
- Psychological Root: Identity tied to reputation, not internal strength.
- Result: Security becomes a theater of dominance.
Loop 4: “This Is Our One Chance to Solve the Gaza Problem” → Manufactured Urgency
- Trigger: Crisis presents “opportunity.”
- Response: Compressed time horizon justifies extreme action.
- Vòng lặp: Each “final solution” creates deeper entrenchment and unresolvable grievances.
- Psychological Root: Anxiety disguised as clarity.
- Result: The illusion of resolution resets the loop after every failure.
Loop 5: “They Brought This on Themselves” → Justification Through Dehumanization
- Trigger: Hamas operates from civilian areas.
- Response: Civilian casualties framed as inevitable or deserved.
- Vòng lặp: Dehumanization justifies violence; violence invites more dehumanization.
- Psychological Root: Moral disengagement through enemy fusion (Hamas = Gaza).
- Result: No empathy, no negotiation, no exit.
Loop 6: “We Can’t Show Weakness” → Domestic Unity Through Perpetual War
- Trigger: Internal division or leadership crisis.
- Response: War consolidates national focus and political power.
- Vòng lặp: Leaders become dependent on war to survive politically.
- Psychological Root: Strength defined as aggression, not wisdom.
- Result: Peace becomes a political threat.
Loop 7: “There’s No One to Talk To” → Self-Fulfilling Isolation
- Trigger: Demonization of the other side.
- Response: Avoid diplomacy.
- Vòng lặp: Lack of dialogue ensures future misunderstanding and hostility.
- Psychological Root: Projection of irrationality to avoid mutual recognition.
- Result: The only possible partner is the one who never emerges.
