Germany at the Crossroads

Deindustrialisation, AfD, and the Demand for Recognition

Germany is entering one of the most precarious phases of its post-war history. For decades, the Federal Republic was the stable anchor of Europe: economically dominant, politically centrist, and socially cohesive. Yet today, the foundations of that stability are shaking. Deindustrialisation, demographic stress, and geopolitical disruption are eating away at the old growth model. At the same time, the rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) threatens to fragment the political landscape. Many observers fear a “Weimarization” of the German Republic: an economic malaise feeding extremism, while mainstream parties appear unable to deliver.

This essay explores the structural drivers of Germany’s decline, the likely trajectory of the AfD, the parallels and differences with the Weimar Republic, and finally the conditions under which a broad coalition could form a National Renewal Compact. Central to this analysis is the idea of the Demand for Recognition (DfR)—the psychological and political mechanism through which parties, voters, and social groups seek validation of their role, dignity, and contribution.

The Economic Squeeze: Drivers of Deindustrialisation

Germany’s economic miracle—the Wirtschaftswunder—was built on cheap energy, export dominance in cars and chemicals, and a highly skilled workforce. All three pillars are under strain:

Energy costs skyrocketed after the Russian gas cutoff, leaving Germany with the highest electricity and gas prices in Europe. Energy-intensive industries—chemicals, steel, glass—face existential pressure.
Automobile manufacturers are losing ground to Chinese EV producers (BYD, NIO) and Tesla’s aggressive pricing. The combustion-engine model, once a crown jewel, is turning into stranded capital.
Demographics and rigidity: an aging workforce, strong labor protections, and high welfare expectations create inflexibility in adapting to global competition. Immigration could soften this, but it triggers cultural backlash.
Globalisation’s new phase: as the world tilts toward protectionism and state-subsidised industrial policy, Germany’s high-cost, open-market model looks increasingly unfit.

The result is creeping deindustrialisation, with factories relocating and middle-class security eroding. It is precisely in these declining regions, especially in eastern Germany, that the AfD has become strongest.

AfD’s Rise and the Political Deadlock

The AfD has grown from a Eurosceptic fringe into a national force. In some eastern states, it polls at 30–35%; nationally, it has surpassed 20% and could conceivably overtake the CDU/CSU. This rise is driven by:

Dissatisfaction with mainstream parties’ failure to solve visible problems—migration, inflation, housing shortages.
A sense of cultural alienation, especially in the East, where people feel unrecognized by Berlin elites.
The power of simplified, provocative messages in a fragmented media environment.

Yet even if the AfD becomes the largest party, it will almost certainly lack an outright majority. And with the other parties maintaining the “firewall” against coalitions, Germany risks a scenario of permanent gridlock: AfD first in votes, but excluded from power; everyone else forced into mega-coalitions that produce little but frustration.

Parallels with the Weimar Republic

The current trajectory carries disturbing echoes of the Weimar Republic (1919–1933):

Economic frustration then (hyperinflation, Depression) and now (deindustrialisation, high energy costs).
Collapse of mainstream legitimacy then (Weimar coalition failures) and now (perception of a “cartel” of CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP unable to act).
Rise of anti-system parties then (NSDAP) and now (AfD).
Polarisation and protests then (street battles between Communists and Nazis) and now (demonstrations pro- and anti-AfD).

But there are also crucial differences: the Grundgesetz (Basic Law) is stronger than the Weimar constitution; there are no private militias equivalent to the SA; Germany is embedded in the EU and NATO; and post-war remembrance culture has built democratic antibodies.

Thus the danger is not a Hitlerian dictatorship, but rather a slow Weimarization: endless fragile coalitions, growing disillusionment, and rising anti-system anger.

The Demand for Recognition in Coalition-Building

If mainstream parties are to avoid paralysis, they must create a National Renewal Compact: a time-limited, cross-party pact focused narrowly on stabilising industry, jobs, and governance. But for this to work, each party’s Demand for Recognition (DfR) must be respected.

CDU/CSU: Bring stability and leadership. They must be recognized as the backbone of the Republic and retain the Chancellor’s office.
SPD: Bring union ties and welfare legitimacy. They need recognition as protectors of workers and ownership of labour-market tools like Kurzarbeit-Plus.
Greens: Bring ecological conscience and moral legitimacy. They must be recognised as the stewards of transformation and secure climate ministries.
FDP: Bring fiscal discipline and SME credibility. They need recognition as guardians of economic freedom, with a visible role in finance and digitalisation.
Smaller partners (Left, regional parties): Bring regional legitimacy, especially in the East. They must be recognised as voices of the forgotten regions.

Without such recognition, each party fears being swallowed or humiliated in a mega-coalition. With recognition, however, they can justify compromise to their voters.

The Outline of a Solution

A National Renewal Compact could contain six pillars:

Industrial stabilisation: A temporary industrial power price, fast-track permits for grids and hydrogen, targeted export insurance.
Job security and reskilling: Kurzarbeit-Plus combining short-time work with mandatory retraining.
Labor supply: Fast-track skilled immigration with service-level guarantees, plus childcare and training expansions to mobilise domestic workers.
Fiscal rules: Targeted suspension or reinterpretation of the debt brake for investment only, fenced with audits.
Social cooling: Opportunity zones in eastern states, faster asylum decisions, stronger local policing.
Governability: Codified minority-government protocols based on the constructive vote of no confidence, plus citizens’ assemblies to give the public recognition in policymaking.

Each measure is branded with dual-party ownership so that every participant receives visible recognition.

Recognition as the Missing Link

Germany faces a dual crisis: economic erosion and political deadlock. Deindustrialisation threatens prosperity; the rise of the AfD threatens stability. The comparison with Weimar reminds us of the dangers of drift: when mainstream parties cannot deliver, voters turn to outsiders. Yet Germany today still has stronger institutions and the chance to act.

The missing ingredient is not merely policy but recognition. If CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP, and smaller partners can construct a compact in which each is visibly recognised for its role, they can hold the Republic together while buying time for industrial renewal. Without such recognition, however, even the best-designed pact will collapse into mistrust, feeding further AfD growth.

In the end, the struggle for Germany’s future is a struggle for recognition: of industries, regions, workers, and parties. Only by satisfying these demands can the Republic stabilise itself and avoid drifting into its own 21st-century Weimarization.